Zseni wrote:

ignoring North Korea...

I can't speak too much about the rest of your list, but this particular item is one in which I was obliged to develop a serious expertise in like double-quick time.

It is to the advantage of the US military and US political maneuvering in East Asia to let North Korea fuck itself.

There is a very good chance that Japan is going to grant aid to North Korea specifically based on how classy a job it does fucking itself, more or less.

One thing is certain: the North Koreans will never get their fingers near a serious trigger. Neither Japan, the US, or China would be happy about that. Now the fun part. Hang on to your asses, ass-hangers, because this is freaky weird.

1. Pursuant to a summit early in fall 2002, North Korea and Japan make some historica agreements. Japan: "Sorry about that colonization thing, how about some money? Also have you seen these people we misplaced?" DPKR: "How about that war thing? Oh, you mean these people we've been telling you don't even exist for the last 20 years? Here, have em back for a while."

2. Over the last many years Japan's economy has been in a grey slump and the party which has controlled the entire country for the last 50 years virtually unchallenged - the Liberal Democrat Party or LDP - is having to face up to unprecedented levels of support for opposition parties. Particularly popular is the position among opposition party leaders that Japan should not hew any longer to the US Security Blanket and that LDP-focused bureaucracy has crippled the economy.

3. The US military presence in Japan and South Korea - growing less popular in those nations every year - suffers a series of scandals. Children run over, women raped, drunk drivers getting acquitted by military courts...nothing new, but more frequent and more publicized than ever before. In the meanwhile Bush Jr. makes his famous Axis of Evil pronouncement which royally pisses off the South Koreans and thanks to a Bushism sends the yen tumbling - and with both, his and America's popularity.

4. We start a War on Terrorism. Then we decide we want a Gulf War II. 80% of Gulf War I was paid for not by the US but by a coalition of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and to a suprisingly large extent, Japan. In America people start murmuring that war is all fine and good as long as we don't have to pay for it and nobody's hopping on board like we thought they would.

Ready for a little recent history?

The abducted Japanese nationals return to Japan from North Korea. Then the North Koreans want them back. Then the North Koreans want them back.

The Japanese say "you can't have them back". The abductees rip off their North Korea visitor badges.

The North Koreans announce they are going to restart production of nuclear energy. Incidentally the summit in 2002 made arrangements for the DPRK to cease production of long-range (read: America-targeted) missles... but said nothing about short range ones that might hit Japan, the same kind that the Koreans accidentally fired over Japan only a few years back.

Japanese popular support for the LDP and its pro-US-security-blanket policy soars.

The Japanese Diet starts passing legislation stating that the Japs will commit money, technology, and forces to US military efforts in the Middle East.

In the meanwhile, who is hesitant to put any force behind the oil sanctions which are to be enforced on North Korea? Japan.

A very elaborate and complicated scene is unfolding in East Asia right now, and I'm only describing the really fun bits. There's all kinds of elaborate stuff going on concerning South Korea, China, Taiwan, and Russia around this issue.