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by Ray of Light 08/28/2009, 11:11am PDT |
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When I did it, the price per barrel was 1/4th the previous summer's peak and well below the past few years' norms. There was ample proof that the market could support a higher price than $35 per.
The current price (~$80/bbl) is not depressed at all (relative to history), and there are buffers against permanent runups (e.g. Canada's tar sands, and people's sudden willingness to drive less and trade in SUV's above $100/bbl).
I'm not sure the Fools are wrong, but (as Caltrops' own Mysterious Stranger points out) it's a spectacular leap to claim the Chinese will pay $150 per when we know that Americans won't.
SIDEBAR: amusing lines from the article!
"[China] has four times the population of the United States, it today consumes less than half the amount of oil." -- Not mentioned: 90% of those people live in the bronze age, completely lacking in money to buy fuel, cars to drink it, and roads to drive them on.
"Unlike the U.S., China has anticipated this" -- is a fucking crazy statement (The U.S., you may recall, invaded and occupied an oil-rich country earlier this decade so as to gain control of their natural resources).
"going long on oil and related energy companies for the long term at current prices is probably a pretty good play. (That's particularly true if you believe alternative energy technologies will be slow to commercialize.)" -- What you believe doesn't affect the quality of the (long) play. The speed at which alternatives appear is largely dictated by the price of crude.
"Stalin massacred many millions more people, but his system was neither so perfect nor so unreasonable." -- not actually from the article or related to fuel prices but hoo-boy is this ever misinformed.
"first published June 26, 2009" -- this shit is two months old! So long ago that when it was written, QB was still living in the free world. |
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Long bets: crude oil edition by Ray of Light 01/14/2009, 7:24pm PST 
Re: Long bets: crude oil edition by Choson 01/15/2009, 10:27am PST
Re: Long bets: crude oil edition by Creexuls, a monster >:3 01/15/2009, 11:30am PST
Good point! It's more of a fat bet than a long one. NT by tell us which you prefer 01/15/2009, 4:38pm PST
Re: Long bets: crude oil edition by motherfuckerfoodeater 01/15/2009, 10:47am PST
Re: Update: scrapped idea by Ray of Light 02/15/2009, 4:41pm PST
Welp, better start tipping. NT by Jerry Whorebach 02/15/2009, 5:31pm PST
I've been tipping all along! You probably just read Zseni's post. NT by Ray of Light 02/16/2009, 5:09am PST
Bitten by contango on futures? NT by Entropy Stew 02/15/2009, 6:05pm PST
Re: Update: scrapped idea by Choson 02/15/2009, 11:20pm PST
Re: Update: scrapped idea by Ray of Light 02/16/2009, 5:30am PST
Re: Update: scrapped idea by Choson 02/16/2009, 7:48am PST
I'd better not see nickels in my tips from any non-NT poster in this thread. NT by Fussbett 02/16/2009, 8:49am PST
oil prices up 70% since mid-January, now seems like a good time to take profits NT by Ray of Light 05/22/2009, 8:32pm PDT
Listen to him boast! He invested thinking instability would drive up his price! NT by Quétinbec 05/23/2009, 1:28am PDT
QB: does this raise or lower your opinion of Ray, of Light? NT by discuss. 05/23/2009, 2:23pm PDT
Well, it's no slippery beef grab but... still impressive. NT by Last 05/23/2009, 2:27pm PDT
Re: Long bets: crude oil edition by motherfuckerfoodeater 08/27/2009, 9:15am PDT
gasoline will never sell for beyond what americans can afford to pay for it NT by Mysterious Stranger 08/27/2009, 9:48pm PDT
gas costs more in canada/europe than america NT by Weyoun Voidbringer 08/27/2009, 10:19pm PDT
Look up how many Candians and Euros there are and then Americans, retard NT by discuss. 08/27/2009, 10:36pm PDT
how old is your arm rest insurance? NT by Weyoun Voidbringer 08/27/2009, 10:56pm PDT
about twice as many? NT by gruman 08/28/2009, 12:38am PDT
gasoline will never sell for beyond what americans can afford to pay for it NT by Mysterious Stranger 08/27/2009, 10:50pm PDT
so I guess you mean in the future when a gallon of gas will cost like $50 NT by Weyoun Voidbringer 08/27/2009, 10:54pm PDT
I think by 'Americans' he doesn't mean welfare recipients. NT by President Barak H. Obama 08/28/2009, 8:54am PDT
they don't drive cars or have jobs do they NT by Weyoun Voidbringer 08/28/2009, 11:04am PDT
Not cars or jobs that matter. NT by "Mr. President," to you. 08/28/2009, 11:36am PDT
obama cares about the poor, haha just kidding no he doesn't NT by Weyoun Voidbringer 08/28/2009, 11:52am PDT
Don't be silly, son. I'm proud of you. NT by President Barak H. Obama 08/28/2009, 6:06pm PDT
this is a riskier bet than the one I made by Ray of Light 08/28/2009, 11:11am PDT
Re: this is a riskier bet than the one I made by Mischief Maker 08/28/2009, 11:42am PDT
mm meant per barrel I guess, no wonder he was wrong NT by Weyoun Voidbringer 08/28/2009, 11:50am PDT
Did you make money, Ray? NT by Rudeboy 05/26/2010, 7:24am PDT
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