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by Senor Barborito 02/07/2003, 4:23pm PST |
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Written at 1PM after an all-nighter:
First off, this article is associated with some of the indymedia community in some way, which is twice as bad as slashdot, so procede with skepticism. Fortunately the author seems about 1 billion times saner than Noam Chomsky, which is vaguely approaching sanity. The language is still heavily pro-left.
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html
Thanks to the heavy amount of number-crunching I did for that one oil-statistics post, I can tell you without even blinking that his numbers for amount of oil in the world/various nations for the last few paragraphs are dead fucking on. I don't know enough about macroeconomics (I messaged a friend at Goldman-Sachs for his opinion, reply forthcoming hopefully) to say much about the top 3/4s of the essay, but this seems like a good explanation as to why the war. The bottom 1/4 of the article is true, or some statistics people at both OPEC and the US DOE have some explaining to do.
Synopsis: OPEC is teetering on the brink of shifting from the US dollar to the Euro. The Euro has gained 17% against the dollar recently, and Iraq's conversion of the world's second largest supply's worth of petro-dollars into petro-euros may be the tip of the spear of a larger movement if we don't act now. The widely-publicized (hit mainstream media) CIA involvement in attempting to back a coup against the democratically elected Venezulan President was an attempt to prevent exactly this conversion in the world's 4th largest oil supply. Iran, the world's 3rd largest, is strongly considering such a move - and the widespread civil unrest in Saudi Arabia means the #1 source of oil (roughly equivalent, off the top of my head, to Iraq, Iran, and half of Venezula's put together) might also convert if the House of Saud fell.
The end result of this would be an international run on the dollar, dropping its value 20-40%, and the Great Depression all over again here at home. The article suggests the current war is a power grab by the oilmen controlling the US government to prevent this economic collapse.
The funny thing is, all of a sudden this has made me sort of pro-war for entirely selfish reasons. The destruction of the American economy is all well and good after my ability to get medication is no longer tied directly to it - but this is not the case now nor for the next few years at least.
Assuming this is the reason behind the war - and if you look at who is for/against the war internationally, you'll notice the article's thesis lines up DEAD THE FUCK ON besides making a whole lot of sense in general - I kinda wish we'd been told outright. "Folks if we don't win this war we're all going to starve in an economic collapse that makes the Great Depression look like the Dot Com Boom." Considering this analysis comes from the side that hates Bush & crew . . . well fuck.
--SB |
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