Forum Overview :: Game Development :: Hey math nerds!

[quote name="you're my only hope"]I got into a total nerd argument with someone over probability in a board game. Basically, it had combat that works just like Axis & Allies. Each unit rolls a die and inflicts a hit on a certain number or higher, which then kills an enemy unit. One faction gets a +1 bonus to their combat rolls. Other guy says that bonus isn't good early game when there are few units and only gets good later in the game with lots of units because more rolls = more "hit activations" due to the bonus. I say it doesn't matter how many dice are rolled and that porportionally it's the exact same benefit whether it's one unit or one million. The only thing that more rolls does is bring the outcome closer to the expected normal distribution. You get more hits thanks to the bonus with more dice, but each hit is proportionally worth less because it reflects a shrinking percentage of your opponent's total units. A low unit battle would give you greater odds of extreme results (in either direction) but that's it. In the end, the final mean is the same even if the modes are different.[/quote]