 |
| Bill Dungsroman 9/10/2004 |
Denver Broncos
DYK? Only
the Broncos and Bucs finished in the top ten on both sides of the ball last season (Denver
was seventh in total offense, fourth in defense), proving once and for all that overall
stats don’t matter. What did matter last year for the Broncs was the play of QB Jake
Plummer. Jake, under the tutelage of some decent coaches for once, played his best season
to date, and he was out five games. 9-2 as a starter is good enough in my book. If he had
remained healthy, I have little doubt the Broncos would have been a tough fight in the
playoffs. The vaunted offensive line needs to get used to a QB that doesn’t stand
completely still in the pocket and help out when Plummer scrambles and tries to get the
ball out. Now, who is he going to get it out to this year? WR Ed McCaffrey and TE Shannon
Sharpe have both retired. That leaves WR Rod Smith, dependable as always in the middle but
not much of a burner. He’ll get downfield after he catches the ball, but he doesn’t
do much in the way of stretching defenses pre-snap. Ashley Lelie is expected to assist in
that department, but his hands up until now have not had the touch needed for deep balls
(or even in traffic). Adrian Madise does have both the hands and speed, but he does not
have the separation. Shanahan is hoping that TEs Jed Weaver and Byron Chamberlain (who has
gotten his weight under control, finally) will fill Sharpe’s shoes if not his “gift”
for obnoxious soundbites. The running game is also in flux with the departure of RB
Clinton Portis in the now-legendary trade with Washington for CB Champ Bailey. I’m not down on the trade, though
– the Broncos ought to be able to make do with Quentin Griffin, Mike Anderson and
rookie Tatum Bell. Griffin is the odds-on favorite to be the starter, and he actually has
better hands than Portis in regards to catching balls out of the backfield and in the flat
(which Plummer is good at providing). However, no one is sure of his durability as an
every-down back but Hell, none of the Bronco RBs including Portis ever seemed to be
durable for any length of time. Just mix in converted-to-FB Anderson and maybe a little of
Bell (who,
unfortunately, has looked the worst in camp of any rookie Broncos RB in the last six
years, especially between the tackles). Garrison Hearst is on board, but he couldn’t
possibly resurrect his career a second time, could he? Hearst could move up to a solid #2
if he still has the stuff he had in San Fran, and avoids injury (unlike he did late last
season). Everything radiates out from that line, and it’s still as strong as ever. C
Tom Nalen is always a Pro Bowl candidate, RG Dan Neil puts down defenders in the second
level to assist the running game, and LG Ben Hamilton only needs to improve his blocking a
bit more to be elite. OT Matt Lepsis, who moves to the left side to maximize his
run-blocking skills, and George Foster complete a front five that never fails to get the
job done.
The
defensive plan set up by former DC Ray Rhodes still remains mostly in effect even though
he is an entire season removed from being a Broncos assistant coach. The basic plan is to
not ask too much of the defensive linemen; get them to lock up with offensive linemen and
not worry too much about a push, letting the LBs make the play. Savvy enough LBs can plug
the run up or zip in on the blitz well enough. Expect a rotation of quality-but-not-flashy
defensive linemen to rotate in and out throughout the game. Despite the conservative
expectations put on the DL, you’ll still see DE Trevor Pryce making his way into the
backfield; he’s just too quick and skilled. Pryce’s sack average per season over
the last six years is better than nine. Now, the problem is at RE. Bertrand Berry is gone
to the Cardinals, and his replacement is neither certain nor assured. Probably the man
will be Reggie Hayward, but he’s prone to getting tied up at the line and taken out
of the play. Raylee Johnson will pass rush on third down; hopefully, he’s up to it.
The LB corps isn’t as legendary as it once was, but it’s still pretty good. MLB
Al Wilson is in his prime. He’s the defensive leader for the Broncos and he plays
every down, owing to his versatility in coverage or against the run. Rookie DJ Williams
will probably be expected to start at weakside. He’s big, fast, tough, and has shown
to be adept at blitzing, which he will most definitely be expected to do. SLB will most
likely be Jashon Sykes, who has shown improvement over last season, where he was out of
position far too often. I’m guessing the Broncos weren’t happy with the play of
their secondary last season, looking at the new faces. SS John Lynch may have lost a step,
but he makes a great leader for a unit that hasn’t had one in awhile, and there’s
still nobody in the league who wants to see him coming over the middle at them. The
problem is, the Broncos also needed speed at safety. Lynch’s presence moves Kenoy
Kennedy to free safety, and I don’t think he has the wheels for it. He does have the
knowledge of the system to roam well enough and keep plays in front of him, though. This
moves Nick Ferguson to back-up status, but he’ll use every play he gets to make an
impact. Remember, Shanahan starts whoever plays best, and all players practice like they’re
starters during the week. CB Champ Bailey is the best CB the Broncos have had since Louis
Wright. Why make such a grab for a marquee CB, you ask? The Broncos may have had a pretty
good D, but they suck at snagging INTs. Champ will no doubt be expected to create serious
turnovers. Opposite Bailey is Lenny Walls, who had better be ready to get about a billion
balls thrown his way now. The Broncos have some good back-up CBs in Kelly Herndon and
Willie Middlebrooks, so nickel and dime packages look pretty good, especially with Lynch
roaming around in the middle.
Many
pundits predict that this is the year for the Broncos. Do they have all the pieces? No,
but plenty of teams lacking all the parts have gone on to win the Big Show. I see them
rolling into the playoffs without question, but I’m just not happy enough with the
roster, and its susceptibility to injury, to see them take it all.
Kansas City Chiefs
It’s
no big surprise when winning coaches jump franchises and mold the new club into their
image of what a successful football team should be. However, it’s of particular note
when the team reflects not just all the good things, but also curiously the bad. It’s
pretty obvious by this point that Dick Vermiel builds offensive juggernauts and gives
short shrift to the defense. He got away with it in the past with the Eagles (who actually
had a pretty good defense) and the Rams (who were so incredible on offense it hardly
mattered – it makes things real easy for a defense when you’re up 21 points on a
team by the second quarter), but the pathetic Chiefs D – all the more crazy since KC
used to be renowned for its defense – was its Achilles’ Heel last season. And as
we’ve seen in the past, teams with cruddy defenses die in the playoffs. The Chiefs
are like the anti-Bills: second in total offense, 29th in defense. Nobody gets
to The Show with a defense that pitiful. Let’s talk about that shitty D first,
because if it hasn’t been improved on, you can count on the Chiefs to squander their
playoff Bye week yet again. KC brought back former head coach Gunther Cunningham to
overhaul the defense and bring it up to snuff (the Chiefs were barely playoff contenders
under Gunther, but they did have a respectable defense). Looking at the line, I see jack
shit. Ryan Sims and John Browning are serviceable DTs, but they have nobody behind them
and neither are Pro Bowl contenders. Maybe rookie Junior Siavil will make an impression on
something besides the club sofa. Look for DE Eric Hicks to line up on the left, outside
the opposing OT instead of straight up, so he might use his athleticism to outmaneuver the
OL instead of locking heads and getting put on his ass, since he’s kind of small. Who
else? Vonnie fucking Holliday? Ugh. The best player on the front seven is LB Shawn Barber,
a real top-flight versatile LB. He’s always around the ball, and is involved heavily
in the Chiefs’ blitz packages (five sacks from Shawn last season). MLB Mike Maslowski
must stay healthy or the Chiefs are fucked. Nobody cares if Scott Fujita is on the field.
Most of the flash on the Chiefs’ D comes from its safeties, SS Greg Wesley and FS
Jerome Woods. They kept the defense from sinking to 32nd overall, and they both
got big paychecks to stick around. Wesley is a big hitter and has great range for a strong
safety. Woods is so good in coverage he can cover deep in man-to-man; it’s like
having a nickelback in your back pocket, and indeed Woods often stays on the field in
nickel as just that. Well, somebody in the
secondary had to have been getting torched last year. Naturally, it’s the CBs, Dexter
McCleon and Eric Warfield. They will be pushed from behind (more like vaguely nudged) by
William Bartee, whose one consistent trait is inconsistency and Julian Battle, a rookie
last year who was laughably bad. The first KC paper to use the headline Julian Battles Warfield gets a sock in the dick.
Fortunately,
the offense is still in top form, with one remaining exception. That exception certainly
isn’t QB Trent Green. Last season, Green finally came into his own and became the
top-tier QB that Vermiel saw him as years ago when he picked him up for the Rams.
Accuracy, control, great decision-making, and –surprise! – he’s pretty
durable as long as gigantic linemen don’t barrel straight into his knee. That
exception certainly isn’t the running came, which marks the return performance of the
superlative RB Priest Holmes. Isn’t it great watching Green, a castoff from the
Redskins (who finally have a starting-caliber QB just this year), hand off to Holmes, who
was cut by the Ravens (who certainly have a
great RB, but an RB who is one-dimensional and now facing serious legal problems). Vermiel
maximizes his RB’s skills (along with the QB) like few other coaches. Sweeps, draws,
screens, all in heavy doses to get Priest the ball. I feel bad for DBs who try to lock up
with him when he’s headed downhill. The interior line returns intact, a very good
thing – Wiegmann, Shields, and Waters are as solid a trio as any in the league. OT
features Willie Roaf, who continues to earn his big free agency paycheck (he spent the
offseason in serious preparation for this year) and a three-way battle between Chris Bober
(from the Giants), John Welbourn (from the Eagles), and Marcus Spears. What that means is,
a great fucking line with great fucking depth. You’ll probably see a lot of Welbourn
as he has the best pass-blocking skills with a mix of Bober, who plays like departed John
Tait, just not quite as spectacularly. That exception obviously isn’t the TE, Tony
“I’m Not a WR, No Really” Gonzalez. It’s the WR corps, the unqualified
worst receiving unit in the AFC playoffs last season. Dante Hall did far more than was
expected of his short ass, but he’s going to be expected to do even more. What with
your starting WRS being Johnnie “Buttafingaz” Morton and Eddie “Waiver Wire”
Kennison, both in their 30s, both better suited as #3 guys. Marc Boerigter must have
trained with Morton last preseason – he dropped just as many balls as Morton. Look
for rookie Samie Parker, a potential downfield burner, get some serious time. All he has
to is catch the ball and run downfield with it to get consideration as at least the #2 guy
with these idiots.
Besides
bolstering an already elite offensive line, the Chiefs haven’t done a fucking thing
of note to improve their team. Sure, it isn’t any worse, but it isn’t any better
either, which means they can count on a nice winning record, a first-round Bye in the
playoffs, and then a crushing defeat as Brady or Manning or even Plummer annihilates them
in the second round or the championship game (if they’re lucky). You guys aren’t
going to make or win the Super Bowl unless you bring in some talent on the defensive line
and at least one shut-down cornerback.
Oakland Raiders
Oakland was one of the worst teams in the league last year (*ducks*). Sorry, but they were. Total, complete,
utter meltdown. Former head coach Bill Callahan crying in press conferences that his team
gave up and that they were all stupid was all I needed to see; the 25th
offensive / 30th defensive finishes are just the final nails in the Silver and
Black coffin. Predicting that Bill would get canned was no bold statement, but it happened
all the same. In comes Norv Turner. Norv Turner? This guy reappears more than Copperfield,
but being the OC for Dallas during many of their Super Bowl runs way back when will stick
with a guy. He just seems to have a knack for alienating players due to conservative play.
Justifiably so or not, alienating players is the worst way to go. Hug them, bully them,
don’t fucking alienate them. The good news? The talent pool is definitely up, and any
coach is better than sad-sack Callahan. What’s the over-under on QB Kerry Collins
getting the nod over Rich Gannon, either from injury or sub-par play? Nothing against
Gannon as a player, but he needs a real QB-friendly head coach like Jon Gruden to thrive.
Turner asks a lot of his QBs, his rep for reserved play notwithstanding. And –
surprise! – Turner has an assload of deep-ball plays in his book (which was why he
was such a failure in Miami) which require a QB who has an arm with the touch to go with it.
Gannon has touch, but no arm. Collins has both, and Collins was brought aboard for a
reason, you know. Remember, he was signed as the second-stringer for the Giants years ago
and worked his way into the starting job in short order. Sure, that was over Jason “Who?”
Palmer, but Collins is significantly better than he was then. He will start by midseason.
He dropped bombs all over teams in the preseason, leaving Raiders fans chanting “Ker-ry!
Ker-ry!” when he left the field. California is a Republican state, so that means they were cheering for the
man, alright. With the departure of WR Tim Brown and the obvious slowing of Jerry Rice
(his hands and technique, however, remain second-to-none), Jerry Porter seizes the #1 spot
as had been expected back when he was drafted. Back to Rice: the best #2 guy in the
league, Jerry led the team in yards and receptions last season. There’s little doubt
he’ll add on to his silly record-holding stats this year. Look for Turner to involve
his TEs a lot, which is why Roland Williams, Teyo Johnson, and Doug Jolley are all hanging
around. Turner also likes a pounding RB, so Tyrone Wheatley has been given the #1 job, to
bash it out between the tackles. Troy Hambrick is in from Dallas and he has something to
prove after Cowboys coach Bill Parcells berated him for his hefty weight (I still laugh at
that – imagine Parcells’ rotund self yelling at Troy “Lose some goddamned
weight, you fat fuck!”) and cut him. Well, Norv likes your chunky ass, Troy. Zack Crockett
apparently is perfectly happy being the #3, third-down option guy. He’s good at it,
so why not? And hey, there’s Amos Zereoue to round things out. Furthermore, Turner
loves to involve the FB, the most unsung player on an offense. Chris Hetherington will be
shifting and plowing through the defensive line to get things going for what looks to be a
very capable running game. Now, the offensive line will in time settle in. However, there
are battles at most every position that may not be resolved until well into the regular
season. So, what happens to Gannon if/when C Barrett Robbins’ knee finally gives up
the ghost and Jake Grove or Adam Treu have to step in, or G Frank Middleton or Mo Collins
lose their job to Brad Badger and/or Ron Stone (highly likely in Stone’s case)? Plus,
the outside features four starting-caliber dudes (one of whom is first-round pick Robert
Gallery), but exactly which two will get the nod is also yet to be determined. Sure, the
best men will win out by midseason, but somebody’s going to fuck up and Gannon is
going to feel the effects. They play the Steelers on opening day. Them they might hold
off, but if I were Pittsburgh, I’d blitz the shit out of them. Then, it’s the Bills,
Bucs, Colts, Broncos, and Saints in the first half of the season. Sooner or later, a DL or
DB is gonna punch through and rip Gannon’s head off, and then Collins is going to
seize his opportunity and get defenses to back the fuck off him as he lights up the
scoreboard. You don’t put eight in the box on a guy like Collins, but you can on a
guy like Gannon. Regardless, the offense looked really good in the preseason, committing
zero turnovers in four games. Not fucking bad, guys.
What to do
about this woeful defense? First, hire a new DC, so everyone say hello to Rob Ryan. The
line was fucking horrible, so in comes Warren Sapp and Ted Washington. Holy shit, did this
line get fat in a hurry. But like cholesterol, some types of fat in football are good.
Sapp definitely, Washington usually. Sapp makes his DTs look really good though, since
nobody ever double-teams them. John Parella looks healthy and performed to expectations in
camp and preseason. Plus, the Raiders plan to use a lot of 3-4 (which they ought to, with
guys like Sapp and Washington available to serve as NT). This helps out the play of the
not-spectacular DE duo Tyler Brayton and Akbar Gbaja-Biamila – DEs get bookended by
LBs and their responsibilities diminish thusly. Plus, DTS line up as ends, so you’ll
see Parella, Sapp, and/or Washington on the field at the same time even if it is a 3-4
stance. Ryan wants his LBs to be aggressive
and blitz a ton. Does he have the guys? Well, Romo was released and Eric Barton left in
free agency, so there goes two guys who would have helped out. It’s up to Travian
Smith, Napoleon Harris, Danny Clark, and DeLawrence Grant, none of whom particularly amaze
me, except for Harris because this mean the Raiders have now started two dudes named
Napoleon in the last decade. Things are likewise questionable in the secondary. SS Derrick
Gibson was fucking awful last year, so he’s out in favor of David Terrell, with Ray
Buchanan in at FS. Oh good, an aging, injury-prone safety to replace the old aging,
injury-prone safety (Rod Woodson). To be fair, Ray is a better choice, but can he still
roam the field like he used to? CB Charles Woodson just cannot stay healthy long enough to
be the dependable shut-down corner he was drafted to be. Stay healthy Chuck; the Raiders’
secondary depends on it. Oh, the Heisman Curse! Philip Buchanon (that’s Ray BuchanAn
and Philip BuchanOn, BTW) gets less balls thrown his way as a result of opposing teams’
dwindling respect for C-Dub and as it turns out, he’s often the better CB on the
field in pass protection anyway. Denard Walker makes for a great nickelback, and there’s good ol’
Nmandi “Pronounce Me, I Dare You” Asomugha in dime.
The Raiders
will most definitely not suck like they did last season. Their poor play was a result of
bad coaching primarily, with a liberal dose of injury problems. Injuries are still looming
on the horizon, but the Raiders have some guys who are just biding their time on the bench
until they get their chance. Nobody is going to want to play these guys in the second half
of the season, and the West is likely to be the most hotly contested division in the AFC.
These guys are contenders, but roster settling will handicap them early on and force them
to play catch up.
San Diego Chargers
Nice job,
Philip Rivers. Your contract holdout shenanigans cost you your starting job at quarterback
this season (but maybe that’s best for you). Drew Brees gets another go, which might
mean he’ll make something of it. I doubt it; his play was fucking awful by the end of
last season, declining game by game. If he ever develops as a starting QB in this league,
he’ll need a lot more time to gestate. He has a lot of clipboard-carrying time to go.
What else? Head coach Marty Schottenheimer has never been known to be a coach who is adept
at developing QBs. This is the guy who released Rich Gannon over Elvis fucking Grbac, for
God’s sakes. Put in Flutie! I joke, but watch and see if he doesn’t start at
least one or two games around mid-season. Meanwhile, the Chargers have fuck-all to throw
it to, even if the QB does get the ball out. RB LaDainian Tomlinson in the flat is all
that comes to mind. Beyond that, the Chargers have a roster full of great slot guys. Eric
Parker is a nobody, but he’s actually a pretty good player. Kevin Dyson is great over
the middle, and Tim Dwight comes out of the slot good. But, there is no receiver on this
team that is within sniffing distance of a Pro Bowl nod; they’re going to need the QB
to make them look good. Ha ha ha, too bad. It’s going to be all-LT, all the time for
the Chargers. Can you put eleven in the box? Oh hey, attention all opposing defenses: the
only SD interior lineman with at least two years experience is ex-Bengal Mike Goff, and
the only OT on the roster with more than eight starts is Roman Oben, acquired in a trade
with the Bucs for a fifth-round pick. Why Oben? He’s great run-blocker. Hmm, wonder
why they picked him up? He’s terrible against the blitz; Hell, against a three-man
rush, he ain’t so great. This line blows.
The
Chargers have decided to switch to a primarily 3-4 defense, I guess for the Hell of it.
Next year, they’ll probably run the ’”64.” Two DTs were drafted, since
NT Jamal Williams is serviceable when healthy, except he’s rarely healthy. Oh good, a
rookie NT in the 3-4, that’s perfect. The ends are lukewarm as well, Adrian Dingle
(off a bum knee) and some other clowns. Who cares. As is usual when a defense looks
askance at its line, the play of the linebacking corps is expected to compensate. Yeah,
but Randall Godfrey is a life-sized Hummel figurine for all of his durability, and Donnie
“Bubble Boy” Edwards has been moved inside because he’s too un-athletic to
handle being outside. Steve Foley is probably the best LB on the team. He’s good, but
that tag “best on team” is seriously by default. It sure ain’t Ben Leber,
he gets caught up in line traffic like nobody’s business. Expect a rotation of dudes
at safety until it’s decided who is best on the team: Kwamie Lassiter, Jerry Wilson,
Hanik Milligan, and/or Terence Kiel. Until such time, and even after that, the secondary
will be in shambles. The only bright spot is CB Quentin Jammer, but he can’t be
considered elite or shut-down until he gains better awareness on deep routes – you
know, where a CB is most needed. CB Sammy Davis got tired of being punked by big WRs last
year, so he added 10 pounds to keep Rod Smith from kicking sand in his face. There is
practically nobody to play nickel or dime, unless names like Lamar Fletcher and Drayton
Florence make you quiver with fear.
The
Chargers are going to be the worst team in the AFC – maybe the league, this year.
They suck. They have a one-note offense and a wimptastic D. They won’t even beat the
Texans on opening day. They gotta play the Titans, the Saints, the Bucs, the Panthers, the
Jets, the Falcons, and oh yeah – the Raiders, Broncos, and Chiefs twice apiece. They
may go eight straight with no wins, even longer. They may go 2-14, only winning their last
two against the Colts and the Chiefs as they sit their starters for the playoffs.
 Bill Dungsroman
| |
